Monthly Archives: March 2012

How Well Do Fantasy Stats Reflect Real Value?

by Chris Bruce With fantasy basketball nearing playoff time and fantasy baseball drafts in full swing, a thought occurred to our club: how much do these fantasy stats that people meticulously pore over actually relate to the real value a … Continue reading

Posted in Fantasy Sports, MLB Baseball, NBA Basketball, NFL Football | 2 Comments

League Regulations and Stadium Subsidies: Part II

by Evan Zepfel Previously, I determined that league regulations contribute to differences in average subsidy sizes across the three major leagues.  As I hypothesized, NFL regulations that contribute to credible threats to relocate, as well as revenue sharing and salary … Continue reading

Posted in Business, NFL Football, Politics | 1 Comment

Running Back Evaluation in the NFL Draft: Part II

by Sam Waters Last week we looked at expected production for running backs based on pick number in the NFL draft. Using a logistic regression, we found the price NFL teams currently pay in terms of draft picks for a … Continue reading

Posted in NFL Football | Tagged , , | 3 Comments

Crowdsourcing Divinest Sense from March Madness

By David Roher “thumbs up if u know JB’s haters are pathetic… when he is all about the love” — SkilletBiscuitCrew on Baby There are two ways to manage internet commentary. You can restrict the conversation to an elite group, or … Continue reading

Posted in NCAA Basketball | 1 Comment

Survival of the Fittest: A New Model for NCAA Tournament Prediction

(Editor’s note: You can see the model’s 2012 1-68 rankings here and full bracket here) Every year, millions of Americans tune in to watch the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, colloquially known as March Madness. And every year, millions participate in Bracket Pools, where … Continue reading

Posted in NCAA Basketball | Tagged | 20 Comments

2012 NCAA Survival Model Full Rankings

Below is my full Survival Model rankings for the NCAA tournament in 2012. The numbers are tough to interpret, but they represent the relative risk of failing (losing) at a given time period. Lower numbers represent better chances to advance:

Posted in NCAA Basketball | Tagged | 7 Comments

League Regulations and Stadium Subsidies: Part I

by Evan Zepfel Each year, it seems that stadiums are getting bigger, more extravagant, and more expensive.  But where does the money come from to build these massive monuments to professional sports?  A significant portion of the funding (on average, … Continue reading

Posted in Business, MLB Baseball, NBA Basketball, NFL Football | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Running Back Evaluation in the NFL Draft: Part I

by Sam Waters Last week, the Houston Texans signed running back Arian Foster to a five year, $43.5 million deal. Foster, an undrafted free agent out of Tennessee in 2009, was toiling in obscurity heading into the 2010 season. Five … Continue reading

Posted in NFL Football | Tagged , , | 6 Comments

Predicting NCAA Tournament Upsets: The Importance of Turnovers and Rebounding

For the past two years, I have attempted to systematically predict First Round NCAA Tournament upsets using a dataset of match-ups from 2004 onward. Last year, I improved the model by adding opponent Four Factors data, and the model correctly … Continue reading

Posted in NCAA Basketball | Tagged | 37 Comments

Follow Up: Redskins Trade for RGIII

After I posted my analysis of the Redskins’ trade for Robert Griffin III, a few readers asked how good Robert Griffin III would have to be if the Washington Redskins more properly valued their future draft picks. In my previous … Continue reading

Posted in NFL Football | Tagged , , | 3 Comments