2012 NCAA Survival Model Full Rankings

Below is my full Survival Model rankings for the NCAA tournament in 2012. The numbers are tough to interpret, but they represent the relative risk of failing (losing) at a given time period. Lower numbers represent better chances to advance:

Team Seed Relative Risk
Kentucky

1

1.1634

Michigan St

1

1.2112

Ohio St

2

1.2226

Syracuse

1

1.2685

Kansas

2

1.2788

Missouri

2

1.2793

North Carolina

1

1.3119

Memphis

8

1.3284

Wichita St.

5

1.3454

Indiana

4

1.4021

Vanderbilt

5

1.4192

Baylor

3

1.4405

New Mexico

5

1.4519

Wisconsin

4

1.4555

Florida

7

1.4901

St. Louis

9

1.4903

Georgetown

3

1.4920

Duke

2

1.4995

Murray St.

6

1.4997

Gonzaga

7

1.5098

Marquette

3

1.5195

VCU

12

1.5287

Louisville

4

1.5398

Kansas St.

8

1.5741

Florida St.

3

1.5778

Belmont

14

1.5798

Michigan

4

1.5904

Temple

5

1.6065

Iowa St.

8

1.6275

Connecticut

9

1.6529

Cincinnati

6

1.6858

Harvard

12

1.7268

Nevada Las Vegas

6

1.7418

San Diego St.

6

1.7695

Purdue

10

1.8008

Alabama

9

1.8058

Creighton

8

1.8175

Long Beach St.

12

1.8276

Virginia

10

1.8439

Texas

11

1.8573

St. Mary’s

7

1.8901

Brigham Young

14

1.9048

Iona

14

1.9903

Notre Dame

7

2.0195

California

12

2.0266

New Mexico St.

13

2.0462

Lehigh

15

2.0652

West Virginia

10

2.0705

Xavier

10

2.0722

Southern Mississippi

9

2.0873

Ohio

13

2.1188

Davidson

13

2.1709

North Carolina St.

11

2.1808

Montana

13

2.2171

South Dakota St.

14

2.2462

St. Bonaventure

14

2.4850

NC Asheville

16

2.6297

Colorado St.

11

2.6780

Vermont

16

2.8825

South Florida

12

2.9453

Lamar

16

3.0594

Long Island

16

3.2212

Detroit

15

3.2273

Colorado

11

3.3386

Loyola MD

15

3.4423

Norfolk St.

15

5.6642

Western Kentucky

16

7.4901

Mississippi Valley St.

16

23.1318

About these ads
This entry was posted in NCAA Basketball and tagged . Bookmark the permalink.

7 Responses to 2012 NCAA Survival Model Full Rankings

  1. Pingback: Survival of the Fittest: A New Model for NCAA Tournament Prediction | The Harvard College Sports Analysis Collective

  2. Lee Cline says:

    Don’t care what the analysis says . If you want to bet me the 6 teams ahead of North Carolina in the field other than Kentucky will get further than NC i will take that bet all day . :-)

  3. Alex says:

    Why do you pick Florida over Missouri despite their weaker survival ranking?

    • John Ezekowitz says:

      Hey Alex,

      The Survival Analysis model is good, but it is not perfect. There are often more early upsets than it anticipates because it is calibrated to predict long-term survival. Mizzou has the largest variance of prediction, and high seeds with that profile tend to not do as well as the model predicts. Examples would be Notre Dame last year, Tennessee that year they were a two seed, Gonzaga as a 3 in the Adam Morrison year, etc.

      Luke and I wanted to spice up the bracket a bit, and picking against the Tigers when they play a pretty good Florida team seemed like it could accomplish that while staying true to the model. Feel free to disagree and advance the Tigers past Florida.

      • Alex says:

        Well your picks look outstanding so far, if you would have combined them with your most confident turnover/rebounding upset picks your bracket would look like one of the best in the nation.

  4. Someone’s going to have to help me the math, rankings and bracket selection regarding Cincinnati making it to the Sweet 16 over a higher rated FSU. While I agree that might happen your completed bracket doesn’t match your ratings. The same could be said NC State/SD State and for ‘Bama/Creighton. There’s probably others I missed. In other words why does your completed bracket differ from your risk ratings?

  5. Jason says:

    How is the survival index calculated?

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s