Comments for The Harvard College Sports Analysis Collective

Comment on Don’t Trade Up in the NFL Draft by Steve

Steve — Wed, 22 May 2013 13:59:11 +0000

I looked at this a different way and got to the same answer.

Do the picks for which teams traded up have a higher success rate than others (i.e., are the teams more certain on those so the expense might be justified)? Since the picks do not have a higher success rate, you can’t justify giving away value (net of trade) to move up. Still possibility that trading up makes sense for teams with few holes as a form of concentrating the value of their picks into a smaller set of players, but that would require more research. Check out the analysis here: http://www.sportsplusnumbers.com/2013/05/luck-vs-skill-are-picks-after-trading.html

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Comment on Equally Inaccurate: An Analysis of Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay’s Draft Rankings by Steve

Steve — Fri, 17 May 2013 18:12:21 +0000

There are way too few articles like this. The networks should do exactly what was done here, then put the best draft prognosticators on the air. Sure, if they have no air presence, you can’t use them. Still, there have to be DOZENS better than Kiper or McShay. C’mon ESPN!

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Comment on Who is Really America’s Team? by albert cortez

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Comment on The Reading Level of Sports Writing by cars

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Comment on How to Value NFL Draft Picks by TracingError

TracingError — Sat, 11 May 2013 11:36:27 +0000

Career AV is a terrible way to measure draft value. A team full of Josh McCown level players would win 2 games. A team of Corey Dillon/Rodney Harrisons would win 2 Super Bowls a decade. A Josh McCown is worth vitually zero in trade value. A Corey Dillon is a 2nd round pick even with a lot of miles and a bad reputation.

Better proxies for value would be trade value, value of free agent contract, and career earning after rookie deal.

Comment on YouTube Athlete Hall of Fame, Pt. 1 by marilyncash29

marilyncash29 — Thu, 09 May 2013 14:28:19 +0000

Sent via the Samsung Galaxy S™III, an AT&T 4G LTE smartphoneThe Harvard College Sports Analysis Collective wrote:

Comment on At Which Positions Have NFL Rookies Had the Most Success? by Brian

Brian — Sun, 05 May 2013 19:15:18 +0000

The major question I may want to know is what these values look like if you normalize them by the expected value. This could be determined by simple location in the draft (potentially adjusted by position). This may provide a manner of knowing if these players meet expectations stepping into the league. These analyses could provide an interesting extension.

Furthermore, some robustness may be of interest as well: What happens if you normalize the values by the number of each position drafted? Have you also checked on the larger sample (beyond the Top 100) and those outside of the first two rounds? These may provide a more complete analysis in order to confirm the results hold broadly.