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Author Archives: John Ezekowitz
Survival of the Fittest: Predicting the 2013 NCAA Tournament
The goal of every team in the NCAA tournament is to survive and advance. And, if you want to win your March Madness pool, your goal should be to predict which teams will do just that. Most prediction systems view … Continue reading
Posted in NCAA Basketball
43 Comments
Predicting the Madness: 2013 Upset Edition
For the past two years, I have worked on a model that predicts NCAA Tournament upsets using the gospel of tempo-free basketball stats, the Four Factors. Over that time, the model has gone a perfect six for six in predicting … Continue reading
The Best Home Court Advantage You’ve Never Heard About
Ask any player or coach in the Ivy League which gym is the toughest to play in, and you will get a near unanimous response: Jadwin Gymnasium at Princeton University. The Palestra may get (a lot) louder, and the road … Continue reading
Posted in NCAA Basketball
16 Comments
The RPI is Not the Real Predictive Indicator
Despite taking quite the beating recently, the Ratings Percentage Index (RPI) is still the official and favored ranking system of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Selection Committee. The RPI does not take into account margin of victory, making its predictive accuracy … Continue reading
Posted in March Madness, NCAA Basketball
18 Comments
Please Do Not Throw Out the Record Books
It is the week of Thanksgiving, which means that we are in the midst of Rivalry Game season for college football. Of course, the most important game was played last Saturday, but I am given to understand that several other … Continue reading
Posted in NCAA Football
7 Comments
Are the Knicks the Oldest Team in NBA History?
Since the New York Knicks signed 38-year-old Rasheed Wallace two weeks ago, there have been a plethora of articles and “hot takes” in the media about how the Knicks have become “the oldest team in NBA history.” Most appear to … Continue reading
Survival of the Fittest: A New Model for NCAA Tournament Prediction
(Editor’s note: You can see the model’s 2012 1-68 rankings here and full bracket here) Every year, millions of Americans tune in to watch the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, colloquially known as March Madness. And every year, millions participate in Bracket Pools, where … Continue reading
