Author Archives: John Ezekowitz

Survival of the Fittest: Predicting the 2013 NCAA Tournament

The goal of every team in the NCAA tournament is to survive and advance. And, if you want to win your March Madness pool, your goal should be to predict which teams will do just that. Most prediction systems view … Continue reading

Posted in NCAA Basketball | 43 Comments

Predicting the Madness: 2013 Upset Edition

For the past two years, I have worked on a model that predicts NCAA Tournament upsets using the gospel of tempo-free basketball stats, the Four Factors. Over that time, the model has gone a perfect six for six in predicting … Continue reading

Posted in NCAA Basketball | Tagged | 17 Comments

The Best Home Court Advantage You’ve Never Heard About

Ask any player or coach in the Ivy League which gym is the toughest to play in, and you will get a near unanimous response: Jadwin Gymnasium at Princeton University. The Palestra may get (a lot) louder, and the road … Continue reading

Posted in NCAA Basketball | 16 Comments

The RPI is Not the Real Predictive Indicator

Despite taking quite the beating recently, the Ratings Percentage Index (RPI) is still the official and favored ranking system of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Selection Committee. The RPI does not take into account margin of victory, making its predictive accuracy … Continue reading

Posted in March Madness, NCAA Basketball | 22 Comments

Please Do Not Throw Out the Record Books

It is the week of Thanksgiving, which means that we are in the midst of Rivalry Game season for college football. Of course, the most important game was played last Saturday, but I am given to understand that several other … Continue reading

Posted in NCAA Football | 7 Comments

Are the Knicks the Oldest Team in NBA History?

Since the New York Knicks signed 38-year-old Rasheed Wallace two weeks ago, there have been a plethora of articles and “hot takes” in the media about how the Knicks have become “the oldest team in NBA history.” Most appear to … Continue reading

Posted in NBA Basketball | Tagged | 8 Comments

Survival of the Fittest: A New Model for NCAA Tournament Prediction

(Editor’s note: You can see the model’s 2012 1-68 rankings here and full bracket here) Every year, millions of Americans tune in to watch the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, colloquially known as March Madness. And every year, millions participate in Bracket Pools, where … Continue reading

Posted in NCAA Basketball | Tagged | 24 Comments

2012 NCAA Survival Model Full Rankings

Below is my full Survival Model rankings for the NCAA tournament in 2012. The numbers are tough to interpret, but they represent the relative risk of failing (losing) at a given time period. Lower numbers represent better chances to advance:

Posted in NCAA Basketball | Tagged | 8 Comments

Predicting NCAA Tournament Upsets: The Importance of Turnovers and Rebounding

For the past two years, I have attempted to systematically predict First Round NCAA Tournament upsets using a dataset of match-ups from 2004 onward. Last year, I improved the model by adding opponent Four Factors data, and the model correctly … Continue reading

Posted in NCAA Basketball | Tagged | 39 Comments

The Exams and Christmas Letdown Myth

This ten day period before New Years marks a pause in the frenetic college basketball schedule. Teams take time off for exams and the Christmas holiday, often not playing games for ten days at a time. Yet almost every team … Continue reading

Posted in NCAA Basketball | 2 Comments