Author Archives: kevinmeers

The Super Bowl, Bill Belichick, and Letting Your Opponent Score

There are many times when it is acceptable, even encouraged, to let someone else score, like playing basketball with your younger brother or sister. Letting your opponent score in the National Football League almost never happens. If anything, losing teams … Continue reading

Posted in NFL Football | 24 Comments

Calculating Wins Added in Football: A First Attempt

In baseball, wins above replacement (WAR) is one of the best statistics for summarizing the total value of any player on the field. Using Expected Points Added (EPA) and Approximate Value (AV), this post explores the possibility of creating a … Continue reading

Posted in NFL Football | 12 Comments

NFL Draft Efficiency Before and After the Rookie Wage Scale

By Kevin Meers With the new collective bargaining agreement came the rookie wage scale and a lengthy discussion of how the rookie wage scale would change draft strategy. Using salary data from http://www.spotrac.com, this analysis presents two models for rookie … Continue reading

Posted in NFL Football | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Nothing Has Changed About NFL Injuries: Update

By Kevin Meers (Huge thanks to TeamRankings for providing the data used in this post) Last November, I wrote a post on how the lockout did not significantly affect injuries in the NFL this season. Now that the regular season … Continue reading

Posted in NFL Football | 12 Comments

Drafting Quarterbacks

by Kevin Meers Using my previous analysis of career approximate value (CAV) on how to value draft picks, this study analyzes how the results apply to the quarterback position. As the five-month debate on what the Colts should do viz. … Continue reading

Posted in NFL Football | Tagged , , | 6 Comments

The Biggest Over and Under Achievers in the NFL

by Kevin Meers The lists below are based on my previous analysis on the NFL draft using the Career Approximate Value from http://www.pro-football-reference.com. The Overachievers

Posted in NFL Football | Tagged , | 13 Comments

How to Value NFL Draft Picks

by Kevin Meers Through 12 weeks of the season, most franchises in the National Football League know whether they are in the playoff hunt or if they need to start prepping for the draft: The Green Bay Packers and San … Continue reading

Posted in NFL Football | Tagged , , | 193 Comments

Nothing Has Changed About NFL Injuries

(Ed note: Huge thanks to the guys at TeamRankings for providing the dataset) By Kevin Meers Over halfway through the NFL season, many are still discussing the perceived effects of the lockout this summer. Washington Redskin Chris Cooley recently said … Continue reading

Posted in NFL Football | 5 Comments

Mike Smith Was Right

by Kevin Meers Statisticians usually complain that NFL coaches do not go for it enough on fourth down. They usually take the “safe” way out of 4th and short and punt the ball, going for the most publicly appealing choice … Continue reading

Posted in NFL Football | 3 Comments

Drafting an NFL QB

by Kevin Meers On draft day, every team gets a powerful gift: hope. Each team can hope that the guy they got is going to take a franchise to new heights, bring home Superbowl trophies, and more glory than they … Continue reading

Posted in NFL Football | Tagged , | 6 Comments