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Category Archives: NCAA Basketball
Cinderella or Fairytale: March Madness v. the FA Cup
by Julian Ryan In America, March is the month of the Cinderella story for even the most casual of college basketball followers. Millions of fans will turn on their televisions in the hope of watching the next Butler make a … Continue reading
Links We Like: 3/29/13
It’s been a while since our last set of links, but we’re back in force to bring you the best reads from around the web for your weekend reading. – Jeff Sullivan analyzes Justin Verlander’s $180 million contract at FanGraphs … Continue reading
Posted in March Madness, MLB Baseball, NBA Basketball, NCAA Basketball, NFL Football, Weekly Links
Tagged Weekly Links
1 Comment
Survival of the Fittest: Predicting the 2013 NCAA Tournament
The goal of every team in the NCAA tournament is to survive and advance. And, if you want to win your March Madness pool, your goal should be to predict which teams will do just that. Most prediction systems view … Continue reading
Posted in NCAA Basketball
43 Comments
Predicting the Madness: 2013 Upset Edition
For the past two years, I have worked on a model that predicts NCAA Tournament upsets using the gospel of tempo-free basketball stats, the Four Factors. Over that time, the model has gone a perfect six for six in predicting … Continue reading
The Best Home Court Advantage You’ve Never Heard About
Ask any player or coach in the Ivy League which gym is the toughest to play in, and you will get a near unanimous response: Jadwin Gymnasium at Princeton University. The Palestra may get (a lot) louder, and the road … Continue reading
Posted in NCAA Basketball
16 Comments
The RPI is Not the Real Predictive Indicator
Despite taking quite the beating recently, the Ratings Percentage Index (RPI) is still the official and favored ranking system of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Selection Committee. The RPI does not take into account margin of victory, making its predictive accuracy … Continue reading
Posted in March Madness, NCAA Basketball
22 Comments
Crowdsourcing Divinest Sense from March Madness
By David Roher “thumbs up if u know JB’s haters are pathetic… when he is all about the love” — SkilletBiscuitCrew on Baby There are two ways to manage internet commentary. You can restrict the conversation to an elite group, or … Continue reading
Posted in NCAA Basketball
1 Comment
Survival of the Fittest: A New Model for NCAA Tournament Prediction
(Editor’s note: You can see the model’s 2012 1-68 rankings here and full bracket here) Every year, millions of Americans tune in to watch the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, colloquially known as March Madness. And every year, millions participate in Bracket Pools, where … Continue reading
2012 NCAA Survival Model Full Rankings
Below is my full Survival Model rankings for the NCAA tournament in 2012. The numbers are tough to interpret, but they represent the relative risk of failing (losing) at a given time period. Lower numbers represent better chances to advance:
Predicting NCAA Tournament Upsets: The Importance of Turnovers and Rebounding
For the past two years, I have attempted to systematically predict First Round NCAA Tournament upsets using a dataset of match-ups from 2004 onward. Last year, I improved the model by adding opponent Four Factors data, and the model correctly … Continue reading
The Harvard Sports Analysis Collective 